Read-only · BTC / ETH / SOL / DOGE / XRP · V12
Kalshi Top 3 — Window Forecast V12
Each ready coin gets one early, locked YES/NO outcome forecast. Separately, up to three better-priced paper-trade candidates can qualify. No trades are placed.
NOT REAL-MONEY READY: probabilities are untrained and NOT calibrated; do not mistake a stable pick for a proven edge. Indicative spot differs from the CF Benchmarks index used to settle Kalshi contracts. PAPER PICK means a hypothetical selection, not a real-money order recommendation.
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Window paper picks
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Paper win rate
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Locked outcome forecasts YES or NO per ready coin
0/5 locked forecastsNot automatic trades
Normally locks around 3 minutes into a window once fresh data is available. One YES/NO forecast per coin; it never flips. Weak forecasts are still weak, and no lock occurs on missing data or after the cutoff. These percentages are unvalidated estimates, not established win rates.
Checking opening data…
Top 3 paper opportunities 0–3 per 15-minute window
Locked selections0/3 locked
Ranked by estimated fee-adjusted margin, uncertainty and spread. Highly correlated same-direction positions cannot occupy multiple slots. An unvalidated model does not establish an actual edge.
Collecting live data…
When will a trade qualify? Separate from forecasts
Checking...Cutoff pending
A strong candidate requires sustained confirmation. No pick is guaranteed.
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All five markets Tap a coin for charts and reasoning
Individual marketsScreening
Last five 15-minute windows Actual target resets
Kalshi's target does not sway within a window. It resets at each rollover. These are the recent published targets and final YES/NO results when settled. Missing results are marked pending.
Forward-test validation Requires settled outcomes
NOT VALIDATED FOR REAL MONEY
Every directional forecast after the opening observation period is time-stamped and locked locally. After settlement we compare its predicted YES percentage with the actual outcome. Brier score: lower is better. Kalshi's market midpoint is the benchmark, not a perfect truth source. Paper returns include estimated general taker fees but not slippage or guaranteed fills.
0Settled forecasts
0Distinct windows
—Model Brier (lower better)
—Market Brier
0Settled paper picks
—Hypothetical ROI after fees
Collecting forward-tested predictions.
Probability calibration by bin
No outcomes yet.
Paper results & data export
Waiting for paper signals. A pick is logged only after the sustained confirmation gate passes. Results are checked when the page is open. Does not represent actual fills.
How the Top 3 system works
Trade-entry model: each coin gets at most one optional trade-value paper pick: EVALUATING, PAPER PICK YES, PAPER PICK NO, or SKIP WINDOW. Across all coins, no more than 3 picks can lock in one 15-minute window. Same-direction contracts with strong historical correlation are screened as overlapping exposure. A pick may be issued at any point after the first minute, but no later than 1:45 before expiration. It needs three independent readings spanning at least 55 seconds, so a new candidate must appear earlier than that cutoff. A prediction never changes sides in the same contract; deteriorating conditions trigger a warning, not another pick. MONITOR YES/NO: an informational underdog alert, not a new trade prediction. REVERSAL WATCH: momentum is improving toward a flip. REVERSAL FORMING: momentum and Kalshi quote movement agree. PAPER REVERSAL: a stricter, unvalidated value screen for backtesting only. An underdog is not automatically a bargain. Market outlook: LEAN YES, LEAN NO, or NEUTRAL from the chart model—even when trading is unattractive. Trade-value screen: PAPER TEST YES/NO, WATCH, WAIT FOR PRICE, or NO ENTRY after estimated fees and uncertainty. The watch price is an experimental threshold, not a fair-value guarantee. A directional outcome forecast is separate from a paid trade. The model probability shown is raw and uncalibrated, NOT a verified chance of winning. An upper confidence bound is not claimed: forecast ranges are just sensitivity scenarios.